Retail Site Selection and Climate Change

Limitations of Traditional Approaches to Site Selection

Let us take the ice cream market to develop our reasoning. This can easily be extended to all categories of so-called "weather-sensitive" goods: cold beverages, sunscreen, air conditioners and fans, on-the-go snacking, and more.

Demographic indicators (population size, average income, household composition, etc.) have long shed light on high-potential areas. However, this data is "static" in the sense that it evolves very slowly and does not reflect sudden behavioral changes driven by exogenous factors, such as heat waves. The same applies to traditional attractors: coastlines, tourist sites, historic city centers -- these locations benefit from a massive influx of visitors, especially in peak season. They therefore concentrate points of sale for summer products like ice cream. If we rely solely on these two criteria (sociodemographic and attraction), the areas that instinctively stand out are coastal zones.

And yet, a quick analysis reveals that the French coastline is now saturated: in Brittany or on the French Riviera, ice cream shop density is high, competition is fierce, and margins are constrained. This model has reached its limits.

Map showing the cumulative number of heat wave days (as officially defined, i.e., a day above 27°C followed by a night above 20°C) since 2000, cross-referenced with ice cream shop density.

If we set aside the city of Paris and its unique characteristics on the map above, we notice a high density of ice cream shops in coastal areas, while for example the Toulouse metropolitan area has very few, despite being located in an area heavily affected by heat waves -- a situation set to worsen, as shown in the map below.

The Toulouse metropolitan area will see its heat wave days increase by +19 days within 25 years, totaling nearly two months of heat wave conditions per year.

However, inland cities are now experiencing episodes of extreme heat. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon -- which we will discuss further in the next section -- caused by increased mineralization (concrete and asphalt) and a lack of vegetation, produces temperatures several degrees higher than neighboring rural areas. These differences have a direct impact on impulse purchasing, particularly for refreshing products.

During heat waves, consumption becomes opportunistic: city dwellers seek refreshment while on the move (combining the practical with the pleasurable), without planning their purchase in advance.

Better Targeting Demand Through Climate and Urban Data

To respond to emerging dynamics linked to heat waves, it becomes pertinent to enrich traditional geomarketing with targeted environmental data. Here are available and actionable indicators:

UHI: Urban Heat Islands -- UHIs refer to the temperature difference between urban areas and surrounding rural areas, which is accentuated at night. In France, UHIs average +3°C in urban centers and can peak at +7°C during heat waves. Meteo-France estimates that during heat waves, average UHIs exceed +3°C, reaching up to +6.5°C in Paris or Grenoble, +5.5°C in Lille, and +4.5°C in Lyon.

Vegetation, Building Density, and Impervious Surfaces -- These morphological variables directly influence UHI intensity. Increased densification and reduced vegetation limit evapotranspiration and increase heat accumulation.

Street Orientation and Urban Ventilation -- Urban axes oriented in the direction of prevailing winds, with well-designed urban canyons, promote heat dissipation. Conversely, narrow streets oriented perpendicular to the winds create a thermal trap.

These indicators thus enable understanding the geography of perceived heat: by cross-referencing them, one can identify particularly intense urban heat pockets:

Dense, non-vegetated nodes
Nighttime thermal zones (high UHIs)
Unprotected transit spaces (train stations, plazas, road axes)

These zones correspond to unmet thermal demand, where impulse purchases of refreshing products like ice cream can be significantly more frequent, especially during extreme heat.

The map above is interactive.

These indicators may seem complex to grasp. Our experts know how to extract their full value. Contact an expert.

Practical Site Selection Example: The City of Toulouse

Referring to the first two maps above, we can see that the Toulouse metropolitan area will experience a surge in periods of intense heat, with +19 days within 25 years, bringing the total to nearly 2 months of heat wave days per year!

Yet the ice cream supply there is low relative to this fact.

A geomarketing analysis can be set up very quickly, correlating ice cream shop locations with mobility flows. A geomarketing solution like Galigeo provides access to both datasets and enables statistical calculations.

By creating a segmentation to separate heat wave days from other days, it is possible to calculate a trend on the evolution of pedestrian traffic in the city of Toulouse during heat wave days.

Example analysis correlating ice cream shop locations with changes in pedestrian mobility flows in relation to heat wave days.

Digging deeper, we notice that the area around the Pierre Goudouli garden, where four ice cream shops are located, loses foot traffic during heat wave days, while another area less than 400 meters away, around the Grande Rue Saint Nicolas where only one ice cream shop is present, gains foot traffic.

This initial analysis already highlights the areas where establishing a point of sale -- fixed or even mobile -- is worth studying.

This analysis could then be deepened with other contextual data, such as those mentioned earlier in this article, including UHIs.

It is possible to outline a methodology for integrating these new lines of thinking regarding the establishment of new points of sale.

Recommended Methodology for Climate-Sensitive Site Selection Studies

To adapt site selection strategy to the context of heat waves, here is a structured methodology based on reliable and available data, combined with advanced geomarketing processing.

A. Climate and Environmental Data Collection

UHI indicators (urban heat islands), providing a detailed map of thermal differences between high-density built-up areas and cooler spaces.
Morphological variables: building density, mineral or vegetated surfaces, urban orientation (from open geospatial data or provided by specialist providers).
Health context (extreme temperatures, pollution, heat waves): national or local meteorological sources.

Collecting this data enables mapping "hot spots" (urban thermal zones), which catalyze instant demand for refreshing products.

B. Cross-Referencing with Consumption, Flow, and Accessibility Data

Alongside environmental variables, integrate:

Consumption volumes by format (sticks, cones, tubs), ideally segmented by geographic zone.
Pedestrian mobility flows (data from smartphones, smart camera counting, etc.) combined with accessibility zones (calculated using isochrone zones).
Sociodemographic data: densities, incomes, urban presence rates.

These cross-references identify zones where perceived heat is combined with a significant volume of accessible potential customers.

C. Geographic Visualization and Potential Ranking

Once data is consolidated, the approach is structured as follows:

Multi-layer mapping -- Overlay UHIs, flows, and consumption on an interactive map.
Thermal scoring -- Calculate a composite score: heat + foot traffic + accessibility.
Clustering -- Group zones by profile (e.g., city segment with high temperature, high foot traffic, low vegetation).
Ranking -- Define priorities based on the overall score and establishment cost.

This methodology produces an operational classification, adjustable to the needs of a business or retail brand strategy. For example:

High-score zones: deployment of mobile or pop-up points of sale.
Medium-score zones: fixed establishment.
Low-score zones: deferred prioritization or product range diversification.

Implications for Retail and FMCG Stakeholders

Integrating the climate dimension into commercial strategies creates differentiated opportunities for various stakeholders: ice cream shops, manufacturers, and distributors. Here are the main operational levers for each.

FOR RETAILERS:

Adapted Format and Location

Where to open: in urban areas with a high thermal score (high UHIs), with proven pedestrian accessibility and limited competition.
When to open: beyond the simple summer season, anticipate heat periods with modular openings (e.g., kiosks, mobile carts), activable as soon as the thermal score rises.
Format: favor mobile formats to capture impulse demand on overheated routes; fixed formats are better suited for locations with permanent accessibility and regular foot traffic.

Competitive Advantage -- A targeted location (mobile or fixed) in a non-saturated but thermally exposed zone allows capturing visible market share with optimized investments.

FOR LARGE-SCALE RETAILERS:

Localized Merchandising

Place products at endcap displays or exits, in high-flow internal zones exposed to heat (entrances, checkouts, central aisles).
Adapt assortments based on thermal geography: variation by urban store (high UHI) vs. suburban store.

Optimized Assortment

Offer a broader range in impulse and on-the-go formats (mini, sticks, individual tubs), particularly in urban stores.
Collaborate with manufacturers to activate seasonal or instant products through targeted partnerships and promotions.

FOR MANUFACTURERS:

Logistics Anticipation

Manufacturers must anticipate demand spikes linked to heat episodes: reinforce short-term production and storage capacities, with zone-by-zone management.
Targeted innovations (mini formats, healthy ice cream, portable sticks) are already on the rise: the mini ice cream segment grew by +15% in volume in 2023 and +11% in value, now purchased by 11 million households.

Promotional Targeting

Adapt promotions to the thermal context: express offers during heat waves, geolocated mobile targeting or through retail brands.
Design specific assortments for urban heat waves (individual formats, takeaway products).

Conclusion

Heat waves are no longer exceptional events but recurring phenomena with measurable economic impacts. In 2025, the overconsumption of refreshing products during heat wave episodes -- as illustrated by the 100 ice creams sold every minute at Picard -- demonstrates the importance of rethinking commercial site selection logic in light of new climate conditions.

The data needed for this (r)evolution already exists: urban heat islands, building density, vegetation rates, axis orientation, pedestrian flows. These indicators can be cross-referenced with consumption, mobility, or accessibility data to identify high commercial potential zones that remain underexploited today.

This approach is not about forecasting. It can be implemented today using geomarketing solutions like Galigeo, enabling the integration, visualization, and ranking of this data in an objective and rational decision-support process.

For ice cream shops, but also for manufacturers and distributors, the task is now to mobilize these resources to anticipate demand, optimize locations, and adjust operations. In a context where heat peaks are set to multiply, failing to integrate the environmental dimension into commercial decisions means ignoring a performance factor that has become central.